{"id":14836,"date":"2020-03-03T14:28:02","date_gmt":"2020-03-03T03:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=14836"},"modified":"2020-03-03T15:06:16","modified_gmt":"2020-03-03T04:06:16","slug":"coronavirus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/coronavirus\/","title":{"rendered":"What impact will coronavirus have on your investments?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"14838\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/coronavirus\/coronavirus-email\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Coronavirus-Email\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"coronavirus \" class=\"wp-image-14838\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Coronavirus-Email.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Coronavirus\u2019 impact on share markets is a hot topic at\nthe moment. We\u2019ve seen global markets fall by over 10% between 21 February and\n2 March 2020. It seems that the market\u2019s sentiment shifted literally overnight\nfrom a state of being arguably \u2018over-optimistic\u2019 to being \u2018very fearful\u2019. Some\nof my clients have voiced their concerns about the impact that coronavirus\nmight have on their investments. I wanted to share my thoughts on this and what\nactions, if any, you might take. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/583656?theme=light&#038;enable-volume=true\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The share market can be a wild ride, you just need close your eyes and hang\non<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When the market is running hot, most investors\noverestimate their tolerance for risk (volatility). Often people say, \u201cI\nunderstand that share markets can be volatile, and I\u2019m prepared for it, let\u2019s\ninvest\u201d. However, when the volatility does eventually occur, that is when you\nreally learn about one\u2019s appetite for risk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must realise that volatility is often short lived.\nShare markets have a volatility rate of circa 20% p.a. This means, annual\nreturns can vary from the mean (average) return by +\/- 20% from year to year.\nHowever, in the long run, there\u2019s a strong trend of mean revision \u2013 which means\ninvestment returns in the long run are more predictable. The chart below provided\nby global fund manager, Dimensional demonstrates this. Market returns 5 years\nafter a major event (e.g. crashes, terrorist attack, CGF) are positive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"801\" height=\"570\" data-attachment-id=\"14839\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/coronavirus\/response-to-crisis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?fit=801%2C570&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"801,570\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"response-to-crisis\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?fit=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?fit=801%2C570&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?resize=801%2C570&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"coronavirus \" class=\"wp-image-14839\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?w=801&amp;ssl=1 801w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?resize=300%2C213&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/response-to-crisis.png?resize=768%2C547&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 801px) 100vw, 801px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">And realise that you have to be in it to win\nit<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the face of uncertainty\n(i.e. higher volatility), some investors consider selling. The problems with\nselling is that you will likely miss the recovery. The chart below (again\ncourtesy of Dimensional) demonstrates that your investment return between 2001\nand 2018 (more than 4,300 trading days) would reduce from 7.66% p.a. to 1.76%\np.a. if you missed the best 25 days over that period. In this case, you would\nhave been better off investing in bonds, not equities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"748\" height=\"543\" data-attachment-id=\"14840\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/coronavirus\/selling-can-hurt\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?fit=748%2C543&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"748,543\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"selling-can-hurt\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?fit=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?fit=748%2C543&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?resize=748%2C543&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"coronavirus \" class=\"wp-image-14840\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?w=748&amp;ssl=1 748w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/selling-can-hurt.png?resize=300%2C218&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This proves that you need to remain invested throughout good times and bad. The first rule of investing in my book <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/books\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\"><em>Investopoly<\/em><\/a>, is to \u2018play the long game\u2019. If you applied this approach when you first invested in the share market (i.e. a diversified portfolio of low-cost, rules-based investments contructed to maximise long term returns), then you must have faith that it will work. And it will, if you\u2019ve done it correctly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The practical impact of the coronavirus <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It would appear that the coronavirus is essentially a\nhighly contagious form of influenza. Therefore, as long as you are in good\nhealth, its unlikely to be life threatening and mortality rates will remain\ncontained. As such, I think the biggest impact that the virus will have is that\nit will adversely impact the mobility of people. For example, people will reduce\nor eliminate discretionary travel, they may curtail shopping and social\nactivities and, in some circumstances (e.g. in China), businesses may cease\ntrading because workers cannot (or are unwilling) travel to work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This will most likely have a negative impact on economic\ngrowth in at least the first half of 2020, although growth is likely to still\nbe positive. China has a much bigger economic footprint than it did in 2003\nduring the SARS outbreak, as depicted in the chart below (provided by Fidelity).\nAustralia exports a large amount of natural resources to China. Demand for\nthese might reduce temporarily. However, the good news is that stockpiles\n(inventories) are relatively low and the Chinese government may have to deploy\nfiscal stimulus (increase government spending) which should underpin the demand\nfor Australian resources in the medium term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"14841\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/coronavirus\/china-footprint\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?fit=940%2C636&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"940,636\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"China-footprint\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?fit=300%2C203&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?fit=940%2C636&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?resize=705%2C477&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"coronavirus \" class=\"wp-image-14841\" width=\"705\" height=\"477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?w=940&amp;ssl=1 940w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?resize=300%2C203&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/China-footprint.png?resize=768%2C520&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 705px) 100vw, 705px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Company earnings growth has recently been relatively robust, but no doubt will be negatively impacted. Obviously, some industries will be impacted to a greater extent than others, such as manufacturing and international travel (especially cruise line operators for example). But some sectors such as healthcare and domestic tourism may actually be benefactors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vested interest in the US share market continuing to do well<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The US share market accounts for approximately 63% of\nglobal developed markets (MSCI Index) and is typically the leading indicator\nfor other markets. That is, if the US falls by 3%, most markets will follow.\nThis is true in the short term, but less so in the long run (long term\nperformance eventually decouples from the US). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump has taken full credit for the state of the US economy and its share market being at record highs (prior to the recent dip). I believe that if the economy and share market continue to remain healthy, the chances of him getting re-elected for a second term in November 2020 are high. However, if the share market or economy were to falter, re-election is less certain. Therefore, I think Trump will do whatever he can to ensure the market remains buoyant and the Federal Reserve is certainly helping him through quantitative easing (it has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ccn.com\/stock-market-will-panic-when-the-feds-qe-party-turns-to-mice-pumpkins\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">injected $77 billion per month<\/a> \u2013 way more than it did during the GFC!!). And over the weekend, Trump was bullying the Fed on Twitter to cut rates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average US share market return during an <a href=\"https:\/\/advisor.visualcapitalist.com\/us-election-investment-goals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">election year<\/a> is 11.3% p.a. since 1928. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Government fiscal stimulus to offset economic impact <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>ANZ Research is predicting that the Australian government\nwill need to provide fiscal stimulus to offset the economic impact that the\ncoronavirus might have. This could include providing loans or grants to\nbusiness, to avoid them laying off workers. This can be targeted towards the\nmost affected sectors\/industries. State governments can also play a role\nthrough easing taxation burdens (e.g. Queensland is allowing small business to\ndefer payroll tax obligations for 6 months). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The market bounce and future volatility <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The US market recovered sharply on Monday 2 March by\nrising approximately 4.5%. As I write this blog, our market is up by nearly 2%.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market has been relatively blind to risk over the\npast few years. Share market valuation have irrationally continued to climb\nirrespective of economic or geopolitical risks. I disbelieve that markets have\nmaterially changed this approach. I don\u2019t think that the market has suddenly\ndecided to become rational about risk. The best example of this is that most\nbrokers haven\u2019t made any changes to forward earnings estimates to account for\nthe coronavirus impact. Therefore, I think the falls over the past week have\nbeen the result of momentum selling rather than a rational response to risk. As\nsuch, its very possible that the market will fully recover over the next few\nweeks or months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Could be a good investment opportunity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have already invested monies in the share market,\nthen my advice is to hang in there and ride out the volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if you have surplus monies that you planned to\ninvest at some stage then you may be able use this recent volatility to your\nadvantage. The problem is that no one knows what markets will do in the short\nterm. No one on this planet has developed a consistently accurate methodology\nfor predicting short term share market movements. As such, we will never know\nthe \u201cbest\u201d time to buy i.e. the bottom of the market. Therefore, the most\nprudent approach is to regularly invest in small tranches e.g. every few weeks\nor months. This will diversify your timing risk. If the market continues to\nfall, you will reduce your average entry price. If the market recovers from\nhere, you\u2019ll make money. Whilst this approach might seem unsophisticated, I\u2019m\nnot aware of a superior (lower risk) approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">There\u2019s safety in methodology<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the common themes from hundreds of share market\nperformance studies is the simple concept of <em>diversification<\/em>. That is,\nif you have a large amount of diversification (in terms of holdings, geography,\nsector\/industry, investment style and so on), you will generate good investment\nreturns in the long run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, if you have adopted the right approach, you have absolutely nothing to worry about. All you need to do is put your faith in the evidenced-based methodology that you have adopted. However, if you aren\u2019t confident with your chosen investment approach\/methodology, then this could be a good wakeup call. And if you need our assistance with working out a way forward, <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/financial-advice\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">don\u2019t hesitate to reach out to<\/a> me for a confidential chat. <\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coronavirus\u2019 impact on share markets is a hot topic at the moment. We\u2019ve seen global markets fall by over 10% between 21 February and 2 March 2020. It seems that&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What impact will coronavirus have on your investments?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus will likely have a short term impact on economic and company earnings growth but in the long run won&#039;t have a material impact on returns.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, 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