{"id":14934,"date":"2020-04-15T11:32:11","date_gmt":"2020-04-15T01:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=14934"},"modified":"2020-04-15T12:12:48","modified_gmt":"2020-04-15T02:12:48","slug":"uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"How to make financial decisions in times of high uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"14937\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/uncertainty\/how-to-make-financial-decisions-email-v2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"uncertainty\" class=\"wp-image-14937\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/How-to-make-financial-decisions-email-V2.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If there is one certainty in life, it\u2019s that there\u2019s always going\nto be some uncertainty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, there are times in our lives where there\u2019s higher\nlevels of uncertainty, which can be very stressful. But, to a degree, we all have\nto become comfortable with some level of \u2018uncertainty\u2019 and learn how to dance\nwith it.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is especially true with financial decisions. Markets\nnever exhibit zero risk (i.e. no uncertainty). This blog considers how to\nfinancially navigate uncertain times, much like we are experiencing today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uncertainty can exist in three ways being (1) personal circumstances,\n(2) domestic uncertainty and (3) global uncertainty. Each is different and\nrequires a different approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/625534?theme=light&amp;enable-volume=true\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Personal uncertainty <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal uncertainly relates to your personal financial\nposition. This can include things such as the risk of a change in your income,\nlosing your job, unexpected bills, relationships and so on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to deal with personal uncertainty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes to personal uncertainty, the best thing is to\nput all material financial decision making on hold. Typically, the uncertainty\nresolves itself within a few months or possibly a year. That is, your fears are\neither realised, or the risk evaporates. Either way, it is likely that sometime\nin the near future you will be able to resume normal decision making\n(management). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, investing and building wealth is a marathon, not a\nsprint. There\u2019s no need to put yourself under any undue time pressure. Instead,\nyou must make deliberate and well thought out decisions \u2013 there\u2019s no need to\nrush. However, of course, at the same time, you must consciously avoid\nunnecessarily procrastinating too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is possible (although rare), that the passage of time\ndoes not in fact eliminate the uncertainty. An example of this is when one of\nmy clients was facing the prospect of his employer cancelling his project (i.e.\nredundancy) for many years. In this situation, we just had to accept this\nhigher risk and proceed with implementing his financial plan. We held larger\nthan usual cash buffers to mitigate some of these risks. In the end, the\nredundancy did eventuate, but not for many years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Domestic uncertainty <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Domestic uncertainty relates to matters that are unique to\nAustralia. These can include things such as changes to taxation rules or economic\nhealth. A recent example of domestic uncertainty arose during last year\u2019s\nFederal election campaign where the Labor government proposed making changes to\nnegative gearing and capital gain tax. Remember that? That was less than a year\nago!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to deal with domestic uncertainty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Tax and superannuation rules are everchanging. Economies\nmove in cycles (although it has been almost 29 years since Australia\u2019s last\nrecession \u2013 although we have almost certainly broken that streak already). Most\nof these risks (or uncertainties) are cyclical and will continue to be present\nfor the foreseeable future. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The best way to deal with domestic uncertainties is through\nyour investment strategy formulation. For example, you must have sufficient\ndiversification in regard to items such as investable asset classes and\nownership structures so that you are not \u2018single point sensitive\u2019 to a change\nin tax law. You must ensure your property investments are of a sufficiently\nhigh quality, so they are able to absorb the impact of a tax hike and still remain\nviable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Put differently, your investment strategy shouldn\u2019t fail just\nbecause of a change in law or the end of an economic cycle. For long term\ninvestors, these events should not be unexcepted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another approach is to price the risk into the transaction you are contemplating. For example, unemployment is projected to rise from 5.2% to 9.3% in the third quarter of 2020 and then back down to 6% by the end of 2021, according to Westpac\u2019s Bill Evans. This could have a negative impact on property demand and therefore price growth. As such, if I was contemplating a property acquisition today, I would reflect this risk in the price that I offered. That is, I would be seeking to acquire the property for a price less than its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/i\/intrinsicvalue.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">intrinsic value<\/a> to compensate me for the risk of buying today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global uncertainty <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Global uncertainty refers to international risks and their\npotential impact on your investment performance. An example is the risk of the\nUSA falling into a deep recession and the resultant impact on global\nconsumption and growth. Or China reducing its appetite for our natural\nresources (e.g. iron ore, gas and coal). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These factors will have limited (or potentially no) impact\non some asset classes, such as residential property, for example. This is why\ndiversifying across asset classes is so important. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, global risks (uncertainty) will have a greater\nimpact on things like super and share portfolios. There are two things you can\ndo to accommodate these risks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to deal with global uncertainty <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Firstly, you need to have enough control and transparency\nover your super and\/or share portfolio so that you can \u2018underweight\u2019 exposures\nto certain geographical markets. I\u2019m not suggesting you take large bets.\nInstead, you can strategically tilt your allocations away from perceived risks.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, at the risk of sounding repetitive, diversification\nis the common thread underpinning successful investment methodologies. This not\nonly includes geographical diversification but also industry\/sector\ndiversification, single company limits and filters to avoid over-valued segments\nof the market \u2013 traditional indexing doesn\u2019t always achieve this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Applying this approach to COVID-19<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Depending on your situation, coronavirus can give rise to\nall three risks\/uncertainties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If your job security and\/or income has or will be impacted\nby the coronavirus, then you may be best served by putting all financial\ndecisions on hold and focusing all your efforts on recovering your income. For\nmany people, there may be little they can do other than wait for the shutdown\nrestrictions to be lifted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are one of the lucky people that have not been\npersonally impacted by the coronavirus, then your only risks are domestic and\ninternational ones, which can be easier to navigate, as described above. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Success lies in your decision making <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Now more than ever you must only employ evidenced-based strategies and focus on the long term. Instead of asking \u201cwhat should I invest in\u201d, a much better question to ask is \u201chow should I invest\u201d. This forces you to focus on your <em>strategy<\/em>, not just the underlying investment. A well-thought-out strategy and methodology should go a long way towards accommodating many of the present risks and uncertainties.  Of course, if you need help, do not hesitate to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">reach out to us<\/a><\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If there is one certainty in life, it\u2019s that there\u2019s always going to be some uncertainty. Of course, there are times in our lives where there\u2019s higher levels of uncertainty,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to make financial decisions in times of high uncertainty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The presents of uncertainty can worry many people and hamper their ability to make decisions. 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