{"id":14949,"date":"2020-04-22T12:05:26","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T02:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=14949"},"modified":"2020-04-23T09:51:02","modified_gmt":"2020-04-22T23:51:02","slug":"property-growth-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-growth-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Property market expectations &#038; the impact of COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"14948\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/will-this-happen-email\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Will this happen &#8211; email\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"property growth\" class=\"wp-image-14948\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Will-this-happen-email.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>CBA Economics stated last week that property price\ndeclines are \u201cinevitable\u201d. It has forecast that prices will fall by circa 10%\nin Melbourne and Sydney over the next 6 months. It cited many reasons for this\nforecast including higher unemployment, lower economic activity, lower mortgage\nvolumes, falling rents and fewer overseas buyers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wanted to take some time to look at this forecast and\nprovide my commentary. This exercise serves as reminder that all forecasts are\ninherently uncertain and tend to have limited application for investment decisions.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/631251?theme=light&amp;enable-volume=true\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Relationship with unemployment and property growth <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Simple logic would suggest that if less people are\nemployed, fewer people will be able to purchase a property and some may need to\nsell their properties. As such, if demand for property falls, prices may\nfollow. That\u2019s the basic laws of supply and demand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the chart below (click to enlarge) doesn\u2019t support this hypothesise. We should see the green line (average house price growth for subsequent 3-year period) increase when the blue line (unemployment) falls. That is not always the case. In fact, the data suggests there\u2019s a very weak relationship between property growth and unemployment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"14952\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-growth-2020\/ppty-and-umemployment-chart\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?fit=720%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,405\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Ppty-and-umemployment-chart\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?fit=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?fit=720%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?resize=720%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"property growth\" class=\"wp-image-14952\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Ppty-and-umemployment-chart.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What happened during the last recession?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s look at Australia\u2019s last recession as an example (i.e. the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Early_1990s_recession_in_Australia#%22The_recession_we_had_to_have%22\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\"><em>\u201crecession we had to have\u201d<\/em><\/a>). Between 1990 and 1992, unemployment rose from 5.85% to 11.2%. During this period, the subsequent rolling 3-year annual property growth ranged between 1.1% p.a. and 3.4% p.a. Inflation was circa 1.5% p.a. during this period, so in real terms, property prices were flat. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What happened was there was very strong price growth\nbetween 1985 and 1988 (i.e. over 20% p.a.) and property prices started falling\nfrom early 1989. Unemployment started to rise in early 1990. Therefore,\nproperty price falls actually proceeded a rise in unemployment, not the other\nway around. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why might there be a weak link between unemployment and price growth? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I can\u2019t offer a definitive answer, of course. But I think\na large part of the answer lies in two factors being (1) the fact we all need\nsomewhere to live and (2) the housing market is close to equilibrium in terms\nof demand and supply i.e. most Australian\u2019s have somewhere to live. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For there to be large falls in prices, there needs to be\nmore sellers than buyers i.e. mass selling. That can happen in the share market\n(and other asset classes) with limited practical consequences. However, that is\nmore difficult to do with property, because we all need somewhere to live. Of\ncourse, investors and holiday homeowners have the discretion to sell, but in\nthe main, these people tend to have a stronger financial position than the\naverage Australian. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">And the average unemployment period will likely be short <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The important distinction that makes this situation\nunique is this current recession was caused by a contraction in supply, not a\nfall in demand. Normally, an economic slowdown is caused by a fall in consumer\nspending (demand for goods and services) and that can take longer to recover. Today,\nmost consumers are happy to spend (a visit to Bunnings will prove that). It\u2019s\njust we are not allowed to venture outside our homes to do so (and otherwise\nviable businesses have been forced to cease trading). Once restrictions have\nbeen lifted, demand will likely return at a faster rate compared to a\ndemand-driven recession. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Westpac projects that unemployment will peak at 9% this\nyear but reduce to 5.6% by the end of 2021 (i.e. only slightly above what it\nwas at the beginning of this year). Most of the other banks\u2019 forecasts are consistent\nwith this view. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In summary, the duration of unemployment will likely be relatively\nshort for most people. Furthermore, there are many support mechanisms that\nhomeowners can draw upon to \u2018survive\u2019 a period of unemployment (e.g. JobKeeper\nand mortgage repayment pauses). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Some people will fare worse than others <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The impact of COVID will be patchy. There will be some\npeople that will be financially stronger at the end of the lockdown period\nbecause their income has not changed and their spending has reduced. Of course,\nI acknowledge that some people will be worse off too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My point is that if you haven\u2019t been financially impacted\nby COVID and don\u2019t expect to be impacted in the future, then practically, your\nproperty purchasing plans do not need to be altered. It is possible therefore\nthat there may continue to be a reasonable volume of active, willing and\nenthusiastic purchasers in some geographic and demographic segments which may\nbe supportive of prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What about the other factors cited by CBA? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>CBA has made reference to falling rents, economic activity and mortgage volumes as additional factors that may weigh on property prices. In my view rents and economic activity will have little impact on prices in investment grade locations. However, the supply of credit (mortgage approvals) can have an impact on property growth \u2013 see the <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/borrowing-capacity-increased\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">chart in this blog<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect that mortgage volumes will fall this quarter,\npartly because of lower demand but mostly due to operational issues (banks have\na large backlog of work due to the disruption of offshore personnel). However, I\nexpect volumes will recover relatively quickly when the lockdown restrictions\nare lifted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sales data might be impacted by motivated vendors <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people would not decide to sell a property today\nunless they had to do so (for financial or other reasons). If the choice was\nyours, you would probably wait for the COVID situation to pass before you\ncontemplated selling your property. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that most people\nthat are currently selling property have to do so i.e. it\u2019s not solely their\nchoice. In this case, they may be motivated to drop their price in order to\nsecure a sale. As such, sales data for this quarter and perhaps this year might\nnot be \u201crepresentative\u2019 of intrinsic value. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not suggesting that the data is flawed or incorrect.\nIt is what it is. I\u2019m just saying that if the only people that are selling are\n\u2018motivated vendors\u2019, then of course we should expect the median price to fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why is this discussion less meaningful for investors? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I admit that I find economics interesting. It was my favourite\nsubject at university. But the reality is, on this occasion, it shouldn\u2019t\ninform your personal investment decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether the median house price will rise or fall this\nyear doesn\u2019t necessarily indicate whether you should hold off purchasing a\ncertain property type in a certain location. Most people understand that\nproperty doesn\u2019t behave uniformly. Property can behave differently depending on\nlocation and type. Capital city median house prices is such a broad measure and\nas such has limited application. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Don\u2019t forget, <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/how-important-is-buying-below-market-value\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">this blog<\/a> demonstrates that \u201ctiming\u201d the market has very little impact on investment returns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consider the future impact on borrowable equity <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When a valuer completes a property valuation, they will review\npast sales of comparable properties \u2013 normally the past 6 to 12 months of data.\nAt the moment, that data presents well, as the end of 2019 and start of 2020\nwere relatively strong markets. However, depending on the property\u2019s location,\nthat data may not support a higher valuation post March 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is something to keep in mind. Getting your bank to\nrevalue your properties today, to lock in access to equity might be wise to do.\nIf you wait to do this later this year, the risk is that comparable sales data\nwon\u2019t be favourable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In summary&#8230; <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Essentially, what I believe will happen is that property sale transaction volumes will fall substantially below normal levels. In the main, the only people selling property over the next few months are the ones that (1) &#8220;have to&#8221; for financial reasons or (2) are less concerned (motivated) by maximising the sales price. Therefore, if these sellers are dominating the market, of course the median house price will fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you believe that the value of your property(s) is somehow linked to the median house price over the coming months, then yes, the value of &#8216;property&#8217; will likely fall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if you believe that the intrinsic value of your asset is driven by variables other than the median house price, then it&#8217;s quite possible that this statistical measure is meaningless. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expect \u2018noise\u2019 about property prices to get louder<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the 18 years since starting ProSolution, I have only\never read one article that was positive about property i.e. now is a good time\nto buy. The rest of the time, the theme of property media ebbs and flows\nbetween \u2018property being overvalued\u2019 and \u2018property is about to crash\u2019. I\nanticipate we\u2019ll probably see more negative stories this year. But remember,\nthese are written to sell clicks\/views, not inform investment decisions. <\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CBA Economics stated last week that property price declines are \u201cinevitable\u201d. It has forecast that prices will fall by circa 10% in Melbourne and Sydney over the next 6 months&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Property growth 2020 expectations &amp; the impact of COVID-19<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Property growth 2020 expectations &amp; the impact of COVID-19 - will property prices fall by 10% in all locations and should you avoid purchasing?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Property market expectations &amp; 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