{"id":15154,"date":"2020-07-08T11:59:52","date_gmt":"2020-07-08T01:59:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=15154"},"modified":"2020-07-08T12:13:28","modified_gmt":"2020-07-08T02:13:28","slug":"property-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"What impact will Melbourne\u2019s virus lockdown have on property and economy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"15156\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-prices\/property-and-lockdown-email\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Property-and-Lockdown-email\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"property prices\" class=\"wp-image-15156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Property-and-Lockdown-email.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Melbourne\u2019s Covid transmission outbreak has been widely\npublicised by the media. Melbourne\u2019s daily positive test rate is relatively\nbenign by world standards (i.e. 0.5-0.6% versus 7.5% in the USA). However, the\nreinstated 6-week lockdown of Melbourne is likely to have a negative impact on\nAustralia\u2019s economy. Melbourne is responsible for producing over 19% of\nAustralia\u2019s GDP. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/692257?theme=light&amp;enable-volume=true\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Spending has bounced back strongly with Victoria lagging <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Firstly, let\u2019s start with the good news. The good news is\nthat according to ANZ Economics, spending has bounced back relatively strongly\n(see charts below &#8211; click to enlarge). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?ssl=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"329\" data-attachment-id=\"15157\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-prices\/anz-spending-1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?fit=1400%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1400,450\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"ANZ-spending-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?fit=300%2C96&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?fit=1024%2C329&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?resize=1024%2C329&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"property prices\" class=\"wp-image-15157\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?resize=1024%2C329&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?resize=300%2C96&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?resize=768%2C247&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/ANZ-spending-1.png?w=1400&amp;ssl=1 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Spending overall is up 5.5% year-on-year to 3 July 2020.\nHouseholds are spending more on goods and groceries but substantially less on\ntravel and entertainment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Spending in Victoria is lagging compared to other States, due\nto the stricter lockdown rules. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Victoria\u2019s lockdowns will give rise to higher unemployment and a prolonged\nrecession <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Up until a few weeks ago, I was firmly in the V-shape camp.\nThat is, I expected the Australian economy would recover sharply after lockdown\nrestrictions were lifted. I based this view on the assumption that there would\nbe more targeted government stimulus post September. To date, economic data (similar\nto the spending data above) has been supportive of this view. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, given Melbourne accounts for over 19% of\nAustralia\u2019s total GDP, Melbourne\u2019s reinstated lockdown is likely to weigh heavily\non the nation\u2019s economic recovery. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is my view that a second lockdown will substantially harm\nconsumer and business confidence. A few weeks ago, restaurants and entertainment\nvenues were contemplating reopening. Now they won\u2019t be able to do that for at\nleast another 6 weeks. There are not many (otherwise) viable businesses that\ncould survive a 5-month closure. As a result, I fear that more businesses will\nnot survive this period and as such, unemployment will rise and take much\nlonger to recover. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on data from March &amp; April, the following\ncategories of expenditure will likely suffer the most: dining and takeaway,\naccommodation, entertainment and travel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact of immigration, education and population growth <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Border closures will have a negative impact on population\ngrowth due to reduced levels of overseas and interstate migration. And\npopulation growth drives economic activity and property values. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As discussed in my recent presentation (<a href=\"https:\/\/wakelin.com.au\/media\/view\/id:275\/title:Property+market+opportunities+and+expectations+for+2020+and+beyond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">here<\/a>), it is important to understand the migration statistics. Around 60% of Australia\u2019s population growth is from net overseas migration. Anyone that lives in Australia for 12 out of the past 16 months is included in this statistic. Approximately 75% of immigrants are on temporary visas. Given temporary visas holders must sell any property within 3 months from leaving Australia, it is fair to assume that most of these people rent accommodation, rather than own it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/Latestproducts\/3412.0Main%20Features52018-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Net overseas migration<\/a> (including both temporary and permanent) is typically represented by three main categories: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>33% from the higher education sector \u2013 students\naged between 18 and 22; <\/li><li>29% from skilled migration or working holiday\nmakers. Typical age is between 22 and 37 and 85% go to the three Eastern\nStates; and <\/li><li>21% from non-working visitors (these are all\ntemporary visas holders of course). <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, whilst overseas migrants definitely contribute meaningfully\ntowards rental property demand and economic activity, they contribute to a much\nlesser extent towards demand for property ownership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, whilst lower overseas migration will negatively\nimpact the economy, I anticipate that it will have a much lower impact on the\ndemand for property ownership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">More government and banking support are almost guaranteed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On 23 July, the Federal Treasurer will confirm whether\nJobKeeper and\/or similar support will continue beyond September. As I have\nstated previously, further or increased government support is almost guaranteed,\nbut it will be more targeted (including providing additional support to Melbourne-based\nbusinesses). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I note that the <em>Australian Banking Association<\/em> confirmed\novernight that the banks will provide repayment pauses for an additional four\nmonths to those borrowers that continue to be impacted by the Covid lockdowns. As\nI have stated previously, it is in the banks best interest to minimise mortgage\ndefaults and forced property sales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What will happen to property prices? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As I have written previously, there is a very weak relationship between property prices and unemployment (see <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-growth-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">here<\/a>). However, there is a much stronger relationship between lending volumes and property prices (<a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/borrowing-capacity-increased\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">as discussed here<\/a>). Higher lending volumes stimulate property price growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think both demand and supply for borrowing, particularly by\nVictorians, will be below normal levels for the next year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Supply will be reduced because banks will be weary of\nlending to borrowers that may be impacted by a weak Victorian economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Demand will be reduced because of the higher unemployment in\nthe entertainment, hospitality and travel sectors will have flow on effects to\nthe rest of the economy. Even if people\u2019s finances aren\u2019t impacted, it will\nnegatively impact confidence. As such, people may delay borrowing until they\nfeel more confident, which probably won\u2019t happen until 2021, particularly if a\nvaccine is not found sooner. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I have stated previously, to date, property prices have\nremained relatively stable. This is because there has been a sufficient number\nof willing and motived buyers to support the below average volume of property\non the market. That is, the level of demand has outstripped (low) supply. I\ndon\u2019t anticipate that this will change and as such, property prices should\ncontinue to hold up well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does this all mean?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My view before they reinstated Melbourne lockdown, was that\nthe Australian economy would bounce back strongly, particularly in the last\nquarter of this year. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect that this might remain the case for States and\nTerritories other than Victoria. However, it is now my expectation that\nVictoria\u2019s economic recovery will be protracted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of property, I don\u2019t expect Melbourne\u2019s volumes or\nsentiment to recover to more normalised levels until early to mid 2021. That\nsaid, I still do not expect any major price corrections. But Melbourne is\nlikely to underperform other property markets in the shorter term. That is,\ngrowth is likely to be stagnant whereas other states may experience property\nprice growth sooner than Melbourne. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Importance of diversification <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps this situation reinforces the importance of diversifying your investments as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/u\/unsystematicrisk.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">unsystematic risks<\/a> can impact investment returns. This means you should invest across various asset classes e.g. property, shares, bonds and so on. Also, where possible and practical, when investing in property, seek geographical diversification. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The good investment news is that Melbourne\u2019s \u201clockdown 2.0\u201d is unlikely to have a material impact on the long-term performance of <em>investment grade<\/em> property. The Melbourne housing market has previously endured deep recessions, stock market crashes, double-digit interest rates and many other challenges and still produced a median house growth rate of over 8% p.a. over the past 4 decades. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But economically, we do have some challenges ahead of us. <\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Melbourne\u2019s Covid transmission outbreak has been widely publicised by the media. Melbourne\u2019s daily positive test rate is relatively benign by world standards (i.e. 0.5-0.6% versus 7.5% in the USA). However,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Melbourne\u2019s virus lockdown 2.0: Impact on property prices and economy?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What impact will Melbourne\u2019s virus lockdown 2.0 have on property prices and economy? 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