{"id":15163,"date":"2020-07-14T17:26:33","date_gmt":"2020-07-14T07:26:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=15163"},"modified":"2020-07-15T11:12:12","modified_gmt":"2020-07-15T01:12:12","slug":"share-market-growth-versus-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/share-market-growth-versus-value\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is the share market crazy?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"15165\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/share-market-growth-versus-value\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"share market\" class=\"wp-image-15165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/why-is-the-stock-market-crazy-email.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>You may have read commentary that the share market isn\u2019t\nreflecting reality at the moment. For example, the share market can rise by 3%\non the same day that we receive bad news in respect to the spread of the virus.\nSpectators are left thinking how can market values rise when global economic expectations\nare so negative? That is a fair question. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then there\u2019s stocks like Tesla in the US and Afterpay in\nAustralia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Electronic car manufacture, Tesla&#8217;s share price has risen by\n50% over the past couple of weeks. Its market value is now equal to the total\nvalue of Australia\u2019s big 4 banks plus BHP combined. The difference is that the\nbanks and BHP make total profit of $12 billion p.a. whereas Tesla loses money\n(and has never made money)! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These exuberant valuations are happening here too. Towards\nthe end of March, Australian listed FinTech company Afterpay was trading just\nabove $8 per share. Today, it is trading at circa $70 per share and is worth\nover $20 billion. It also doesn\u2019t make a profit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, how do you navigate a market that doesn\u2019t make a lot of sense?\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/697111?theme=light&#038;enable-volume=true\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Robinhood effect<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the contributors to this irrational exuberance is the influx of amateur investors \u2013 often first-time investors. Back in May, Australian regulator <a href=\"https:\/\/asic.gov.au\/about-asic\/news-centre\/find-a-media-release\/2020-releases\/20-102mr-retail-investors-at-risk-in-volatile-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">ASIC<\/a> noted there had been a 340% increase in the opening of new share trading accounts. The US has also reported a record number of new account openings this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The theory is that people are becoming bored being locked in\ntheir homes. Sports betting and casinos are closed. So, people have turned\ntheir attention to \u201cgambling\u201d on the share market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>FinTec companies, particularly in the US have jumped onto this trend. US provider, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/business-and-finance\/2020\/7\/9\/21314119\/stock-market-day-trading-reddit-dave-portnoy-barstool-robinhood\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Robinhood<\/a> is best known for gamifying share trading. It offers free stock to anyone that opens a new account \u2013 and additional free stock if you refer friends. The screen turns green if your trade is in profit (and red if its not), sends you confetti when you buy and gives you your money straight away after you sell, so you can trade again (it takes 3 days in Australia). Many brokerages in the US now don\u2019t charge commissions or fees \u2013 instead they <em>hide<\/em> their margin in the quoted share prices. All of these things are aimed at encouraging people to gamble, not invest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, ASIC has noted its concern with Australian retail\ninvestors trading in pursuit of quick profits. Its data suggests most are\nunsuccessful and lose money. For example, per ASIC, in the week of 16-22 March\n2020, retail clients\u2019 net losses from trading CFDs were $234 million. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, this behaviour is against everything we believe\nat ProSolution and is more akin to gambling than it is investing. But\nspeculators (gamblers) can have a substantial impact on markets in the short\nterm \u2013 Bitcoin is an excellent example of this. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Everything is popular until it\u2019s not. This will end in tears<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well-respected stock market analyst, Rob Arnott highlighted in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2020-07-09\/stocks-are-skating-on-a-knife-edge-research-affiliates-arnott-says-video\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">this interview<\/a> that Amazon is currently valued on a price-earnings (PE) ratio of 120 times. Even if you believe that Amazon could grow its sales by 20% p.a. over the next 10 years (which would mean that in 10 years it would be larger than the entire retail marketplace globally \u2013 you\u2019d have to be sceptical whether that is possible), it should be priced at a PE of 70, not 120! The only way an investor can generate a positive return after paying 120 times earnings for a stock is if the bubble continues to grow, as long as they sell before it bursts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned above, Afterpay is now trading above $70 per\nshare. This implies a valuation of over $20 billion \u2013 which is almost as\nvaluable as Coles supermarkets. In the 2019 financial year, Coles made a profit\nof over $1.6 billion whereas Afterpay lost $24 million (and has never turned a\nprofit in its history). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have no doubt that valuations like these are indicative of\na bubble. And all bubbles burst at some stage. Unfortunately, thousands of amateur\ninvestors will end up losing a lot of money. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Traditional index funds will have to buy overvalued stocks <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to note that traditional index funds are\nforced to participate in these rising stock valuations. That is, now that\nAfterpay is a top 20 company in Australia, traditional market cap index funds\nwill need to buy more of this stock when they rebalance. Most index funds tend\nto rebalance one to four times per year \u2013 often around the end of the financial\nyear. This is one of the criticisms of traditional market cap indexing i.e. they\ntend to follow price bubbles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Are all stocks overvalued? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>These irrational valuations (as discussed above) can distort the market as a whole. As such, I have been reading an increasing amount of commentary that suggests \u201cmarkets\u201d are over-valued i.e. they are not factoring in the potential risks caused by the Covid-19 lockdowns. The charts below provided by JP Morgan (click to enlarge) show the Australian and US market and PE ratios at various times of the past 25 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?ssl=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"347\" data-attachment-id=\"15166\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/share-market-growth-versus-value\/market-valuations\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?fit=1400%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1400,450\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Market-valuations\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?fit=300%2C96&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?fit=1024%2C329&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?resize=1080%2C347&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"share market valuation\" class=\"wp-image-15166\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?w=1400&amp;ssl=1 1400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?resize=300%2C96&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?resize=1024%2C329&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Market-valuations.jpg?resize=768%2C247&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian market (ASX200) is currently valued at a PE\nof 19.1 times and the US market (S&amp;P 500) at 21.7 times. These valuation\nlevels appear expensive when compared to the average \u2013 being 14.3 times for the\nAustralian market and around 17 times for the US market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But whilst the market overall seems overvalued, it is clear\nthat this is concentrated in certain stocks and sectors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the US, the following sectors have the most elevated\nvaluations: Consumer Discretionary (e.g. Amazon), Industrials and Technology. In\nAustralia, it is Technology, Health Care and Industrials. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, there are sectors in both markets that\nexhibit below mean valuation metrics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Growth\u2019 is very expensive compared to \u2018value\u2019 <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can allocate stocks into two main categories being <em>growth<\/em>\nand <em>value<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <em>growth<\/em> stock is a business that is expected to generate\na very high level of growth in the future. As such, its current revenue and\nprofitability level is not representative of what an investor might expect in\nthe future. The thesis is that you are happy to pay more for a growth stock on\nthe assumption that the future increase in profitability will more than\ncompensate you. Tesla, Afterpay and Amazon are all growth stocks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <em>value<\/em> stock is one that is currently undervalued by\nthe market having regard to historical valuation (PE) multiples for that stock\nand its underlying fundamentals. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past 5 to 10 years, <em>growth<\/em> investors have\nbeen rewarded and <em>value<\/em> investors have, as a result, been punished as\nthey have achieved much lower returns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below (also prepared by JP Morgan) shows how\nexpensive <em>growth<\/em> has become compared to <em>value<\/em>. <em>Growth<\/em> is a\nbubble ready to pop!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"667\" data-attachment-id=\"15176\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/share-market-growth-versus-value\/screen-shot-2020-07-13-at-2-57-32-pm\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?fit=1659%2C1080&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1659,1080\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?fit=300%2C195&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?fit=1024%2C667&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm.jpg?resize=1024%2C667&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Growth versus value\" class=\"wp-image-15176\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?resize=1024%2C667&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?resize=300%2C195&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?resize=768%2C500&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?resize=1536%2C1000&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Screen-Shot-2020-07-13-at-2.57.32-pm-scaled.jpg?w=1659&amp;ssl=1 1659w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to invest in a market that doesn\u2019t make sense <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The best way to invest in share markets at the moment in a\nway that minimises your risk is to adopt <em>value<\/em> and <em>quality<\/em>\noverlays. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A value overlay essentially filters stocks out of a given\nindex that are trading at very high valuations. Various valuation metrics can\nbe used including PE, price-to-book and so forth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A quality overlay filters out stocks that exhibit low\nquality characteristics which can include high debt, volatile earnings and low\nprofitability or return on equity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of these are rules-based, statistical filters and do not\nrequire any subjective assessment. Furthermore, these approaches can and have\nbeen back tested. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The idea is that a <em>value<\/em> approach will protect you\nfrom overinflated sectors of the market and a <em>quality<\/em> approach will\nprotect you (to some degree) from the risk of a prolonged recession, as\nhigh-quality, strong companies are likely to better whether economic storms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It is not an all or nothing decision <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Investing in the share market should be a slow process. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In most situations, it is erroneous to decide to invest <em>nothing<\/em>\nbut is also silly to invest <em>everything<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, you would be well-served by considering two\nquestions: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>which approach or methodology helps you avoid the risks whilst capturing the future opportunities (which is what I have discussed above); and <\/li><li>what quantum of investment would you be comfortable making? For most people, the answer ranges between $1 and $1 million i.e. it\u2019s not zero. If markets are making you nervous, invest in smaller, regular tranches. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It\u2019s a bubble and we should be concerned<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some sectors of the market (and individual stocks) are very\nworrying. Some sectors are bubbles waiting to burst \u2013 without a doubt, its\n\u201cwhen\u201d not \u201cif\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that is not to say that all share market investments\ncarry equal risk. The best thing is to seek independent, professional financial\nadvice to ensure you are adopting the most appropriate approach. <\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You may have read commentary that the share market isn\u2019t reflecting reality at the moment. For example, the share market can rise by 3% on the same day that we&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why is the share market crazy? And how to invest in a lower risk manner.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Why is the share market crazy? Some markets and stocks continue to rise despite the bad news related to Covid. 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