{"id":16289,"date":"2022-05-31T11:00:26","date_gmt":"2022-05-31T01:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=16289"},"modified":"2022-05-31T11:14:52","modified_gmt":"2022-05-31T01:14:52","slug":"investment-timing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/investment-timing\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Timing&#8221; the market can be more important than &#8220;time in&#8221; the market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"16290\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/investment-timing\/market-cycles-timing-twitter-post-1000-x-250-px\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"investment timing \" class=\"wp-image-16290\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/market-cycles-timing-Twitter-Post-1000-\u00d7-250-px.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people are familiar with the saying that \u201ctime in the market is more important than timing the market\u201d. It is very true that holding a quality investment for many decades will mask imperfect timing. However, for some asset classes\/investments, timing can be very important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-most-markets-move-in-cycles\">Most markets move in cycles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people understand that markets move in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/market_cycles.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">cycles<\/a>. To generalise, an asset class can be over-valued (particularly during a boom cycle), under-valued (after a bust cycle) or fairly valued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you had have invested in the US tech index (NASDAQ) in November 2021 you would have lost about 30% to date. This is a lesson in poor timing. $100 invested would now be worth $70. An investor needs a 43% return just to get back to $100 again (breakeven). It\u2019s worth noting that every fundamental indicator highlighted that the NASDAQ has been overvalued for some time. Of course, a bull market can last a lot longer than anyone can anticipate which invites people to ignore these fundamental indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/webplayer.whooshkaa.com\/episode\/1002429?theme=light&amp;enable-volume=true&amp;iframe-height=190\" height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mean-reversion-what-goes-up-must-come-down\">Mean reversion: what goes up, must come down<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If we acknowledge that most markets move in cycles, then it is obvious that we should invest in undervalued or fairly valued asset classes and sell asset classes that are overvalued. Taking this approach leverages the power of mean reversion as I explain in <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/mean-reversion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">this blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-investment-grade-property-has-much-flatter-cycles\">Investment-grade property has much flatter cycles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It is important to define what I mean by \u201cinvestment-grade property\u201d. <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/makes-proprty-investment-grade\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Investment-grade property<\/a> is an asset that has produced a solid historical capital growth rate, underpinned by a strong land value component and scarcity. As such, investment-grade property benefits from perpetually strong demand at a level that exceeds supply. These assets are generally located in well-established, sort after, blue-chip suburbs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Property is a lot less volatile than shares \u2013 about half the rate. I suspect there\u2019s two reasons for this. Firstly, property is a necessity. We all need a roof over our heads. It is not a discretionary asset, like shares are. Secondly, due to high transactional costs (agent fees, stamp duty, etc.), property isn\u2019t traded (bought and sold) in the same way shares are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, the volatility of the median houses price in Melbourne since 1980 is 9.1%. The average capital growth rate over that period was 8.3% p.a. Therefore, two-thirds of the time investors should expect the annual growth rate will range between 0.8% and 17.4%<a href=\"#_ftn1\" id=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That compares favourably to share markets which tend to have volatility rates of 18-20%. Therefore, two-thirds of the time share market returns will range between -11% and +28% &#8211; a much wider range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-timing-the-property-market-is-less-important\">Timing the property market is less important<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Median-growth-rates-since-1980-all-states-Nov2021.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">This chart<\/a> sets out long-term growth patterns for property in each capital city. It is noteworthy that property tends to eb between two cycles being <em>growth<\/em> and <em>flat<\/em>. Of course, it would be great if you could accurately pick when each cycle will begin and end, but you can\u2019t. It is very difficult (read impossible). Markets cycles can last longer than you may expect. For example, <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/InvestmentGradeApartmentsUpdate-Nov2021-v2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Melbourne\u2019s apartment market<\/a> is a good example of this \u2013 it\u2019s been flat since 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps one relatively reliable indicator could be if historic growth over the past 6-7+ years has been materially above or below the average, that could be a sign that the market cycle will change soon. For example, if the growth over the past 7 years has been say &gt; 13%, then it\u2019s likely the market will soon enter a flat cycle. Apart from that, timing the property market is less important, because the likelihood of a significant fall in value is low (based on historical data), unlike with shares (NASDAQ example above is case in point).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-however-non-investment-grade-property-markets-can-be-more-volatile\">However, non-investment-grade property markets can be more volatile<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some (non-investment grade) property markets can exhibit higher volatility and experience share price declines. For example, beachside markets that are dominated by second homes (i.e. not primary owner-occupier homes) are good examples of this. In these markets, timing becomes more important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-time-will-be-less-important-in-the-long-run\">Time will be less important in the long run<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Investment timing can have a big impact on your returns in the short run. For example, if you hold an investment for less than a year, then the \u2018timing\u2019 when you made the investment can have a big impact on your short-term return. However, the longer your own the investment for, the investment\u2019s fundamentals will be mainly responsible for your long-term returns. In short, normal volatility will have an impact in the short run but very little impact in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only exception to this is if you invest before a market crash\/correction. For example, if you invested in the Australian market in September 1987, just before the market crash, your investment would have lost about 45% of its value by February 1988 \u2013 not a good start. If you held that investment today, you would have generated a return of only 3.4% p.a. (excluding dividends). Holding that investment for almost 35 years still hasn\u2019t made up for the unfortunate timing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-should-you-sell-if-an-asset-class-is-over-valued\">Should you sell if an asset-class is over-valued?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If markets move in cycles, then what you could do is buy when the asset is under-valued, sell it when it becomes over-valued and reinvest those proceeds in another under-valued asset class. Whilst this approach has merit, it is often difficult to identify market cycles in real time with perfect accuracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A less aggressive approach would be to reweight your asset allocation every year or so. This involves reducing exposure to asset classes that appear over-valued (i.e. taking profits) and reinvesting these monies in asset classes that are likely to deliver above average returns i.e., under-valued. Maintain a diversified asset allocation means you don\u2019t have to guess which baskets to put your eggs in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-don-t-ignore-timing-but-quality-and-time-are-more-important\">Don\u2019t ignore timing but quality and time are more important<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I would like to leave you with three insights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol type=\"1\"><li>Small timing mistakes don\u2019t matter if you optimise your investment <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/quality-is-king\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">quality<\/a> and hold the investment for the long term.<\/li><li>You must avoid making big timing mistakes, as its unlikely <em>time<\/em> will make up for them e.g., invest just prior to a 30%+ crash.<\/li><li>Timing is less important for residential property, due to its lower volatility rate.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, the saying should be amended to read; \u201ctime in the market is more important than timing the market, as long as you don\u2019t invest before a crash!\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" id=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> 95% of annual returns will be between -10% and +26% (being average return -\/+ two standard deviations).<\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most people are familiar with the saying that \u201ctime in the market is more important than timing the market\u201d. It is very true that holding a quality investment for many&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Investment timing can be important<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Saying: &quot;time&quot; in the investment is more important than &quot;timing&quot; your investment... but the truth is investment timing can be important.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Timing&quot; 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