{"id":16370,"date":"2022-07-26T08:03:16","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T22:03:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.prosolution.com.au\/?p=16370"},"modified":"2022-07-26T08:03:21","modified_gmt":"2022-07-25T22:03:21","slug":"property-buy-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-buy-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Now is a great time to buy property. Here&#8217;s why&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"250\" data-attachment-id=\"16373\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-buy-2022\/email-perfect-time\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,250\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Email-Perfect-Time\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?fit=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?fit=1000%2C250&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?resize=1000%2C250&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"property buy now\" class=\"wp-image-16373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?resize=300%2C75&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Email-Perfect-Time.png?resize=768%2C192&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In mid-2021, I wrote this blog: <a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/demand-property-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u201cDon\u2019t buy a property in this market\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/a> because, at that time, many property buyers were over-paying for property just to get into the market. I call it the <em>FOMO premium<\/em>, for lack of a better term (more about this below). My thesis was that since it\u2019s never wise to allow fear (e.g., FOMO) to influence financial decision making, it was better to not buy property in 2021 if it meant having to overpay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know that the market has cooled somewhat this year. It is now my view that this is a much better market to buy in, if you can find the <em>right<\/em> asset, of course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-drove-the-property-boom-in-2020-and-2021\">What drove the property boom in 2020 and 2021?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The median house price in the eastern capital cities grew by between 12% and 16% p.a. compounding over the 3 years ended March 2021. I believe this growth was driven by two predominant factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol type=\"1\"><li>Long-horizon mean reversion; and<\/li><li>FOMO premium.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.buzzsprout.com\/2005600\/11021547-now-s-a-great-time-to-buy-property-here-s-why?client_source=small_player&amp;iframe=true\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"200\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" title=\"Investopoly, Now\u2019s a great time to buy property. Here\u2019s why\u2026 \"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-market-was-mostly-making-up-for-lost-ground\">The market was mostly making up for lost ground<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart below illustrates the historic compounding capital growth of the median house price in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane for the periods ending March 2022. The \u201clong-term\u201d figures reflect growth over the past 42 years i.e., 1980 to 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"666\" data-attachment-id=\"16372\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/property-buy-2022\/historic-property-growth-to-march2022-1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?fit=1176%2C765&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1176,765\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?fit=300%2C195&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?fit=1024%2C666&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?resize=1024%2C666&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?resize=1024%2C666&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?resize=300%2C195&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?resize=768%2C500&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Historic-property-growth-to-March2022-1.png?w=1176&amp;ssl=1 1176w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Whilst recent growth in property prices was well above the long-term average and therefore unsustainable, longer-term growth rates are still below the long-term averages with only two exceptions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol type=\"1\"><li>Sydney\u2019s growth rate over the past 10 years exceeds the long-term average by 1.60% p.a. However, growth over 15 years is in line with the long-term average. Therefore, it\u2019s possible that Sydney prices have over-corrected over recent years and could enter into a flatter cycle for the few years; and<\/li><li>Brisbane\u2019s growth rate over the past 5 years has exceeded its long-term average. It is noteworthy however that growth over 10 and 15 years is still below average, so this market is probably still undervalued and could continue to grow strongly to revert to its mean. &nbsp;<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wealthcoach.com.au\/stage\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Median-house-growth-Mar-1980-to-Mar2022-1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">This updated chart<\/a> demonstrates that property markets tend to move in two distinct cycles: a flat cycle followed by a growth cycle. To a large extent, this is what happened in Melbourne and Sydney after posting house price declines over the 3 years prior to the beginning of Covid. As demonstrated, the 5-year growth is still below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-fomo-premium\">The FOMO premium<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s reaction to Covid throughout 2020 and 2021 fueled demand for property:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>The cash rate was ostensibly cut to zero. The RBA lent cheap money to the banks which they used to fund very low fixed rate loans, often at rates below 2% p.a.<\/li><li>Higher income earners were able to preserve their incomes because their occupations were able to be conducted from home, unlike lower-income earners that worked in retail, hospitality and travel, for example.<\/li><li>Due to the lockdowns, higher-income-earners spent less and saved more \u2013 they enjoyed much larger levels of surplus cash flow.<\/li><li>And finally, people were spending more time at home which invited them to reflect on whether their home adequately suited their lifestyle needs.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These factors conspired to create a lot of demand for property, particularly from higher income earners who considered upgrading their home (i.e., demand was mainly fueled by owner-occupiers, not investors).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In early 2021, the common buyer sentiment tended to be, \u201clow interest rates will drive property values higher so we must hurry to buy now before it\u2019s too late\u201d. As such, buyers were willing to pay a premium to successfully purchase a property thinking that it\u2019s better to pay a bit more now, than a lot more later. This is what I\u2019m calling the \u201c<em>FOMO premium\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The FOMO premium was temporary, of course, and disappeared towards the end of last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-buying-when-conventional-wisdom-suggests-otherwise-is-often-challenging\">Buying when conventional wisdom suggests otherwise is often challenging<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The best time to buy an asset class is when its unpopular to do so, because it means there\u2019s less competition from other buyers. This gives you more time to complete any due diligence (less pressure) and less competition means that the risk of overpaying for property is greatly reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, human beings are often influenced by social proof. That is, observing other people doing what we plan to do gives us confidence that it\u2019s the right thing to do. We are hardwired to follow the pack. That is why it feels unnatural to do the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the moment, property market sentiment is quite negative. Also, many economists are predicting that property prices will fall by around 15%. Therefore, the conventional wisdom is that it\u2019s not a good time to buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-but-i-want-to-delay-purchasing-in-case-prices-fall-further\">But I want to delay purchasing in case prices fall further\u2026<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m a presenting a case (above) that the price rises over the past two years were mainly driven by mean reversion, which is fundamentally sound and sustainable. Property prices were making up for lost ground and not getting into bubble territory. The FOMO premium also contributed a small amount towards this growth, which has since evaporated, so prices might retreat by 4%-6%, but price falls of 15%+ are very unlikely (statistically, the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StuartWemyss\/status\/1536995462146039810?s=20&amp;t=9lWIUtRzVbN_IHEO6av8-A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">probability of that occurring is about 2%-3%<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most importantly, no one can tell what the market will do in the short run. Statistically, it\u2019s more likely that prices will fall a little, but not a lot. Waiting has risks too because large price drops may not eventuate, so you\u2019ll miss opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, investment-grade assets rarely sell at bargain prices. Auction clearance rates are in the low-to-mid 50%\u2019s which suggests it\u2019s a buyers\u2019 market. However, I have attended a few auctions of investment-grade properties in recent weeks and very good results were achieved. Quality property assets will almost always out-perform the general market so if you want a good quality asset, you must be prepared to pay fair value in any market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I\u2019d much rather buy a wonderful property at a fair price than a fair property that at a wonderful price. So, if you\u2019re getting a bargain, you must ask why? It could be that it\u2019s a compromised asset and won\u2019t make a good long-term investment. Or you could be lucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-stock-levels-will-be-the-main-challenge\">Stock levels will be the main challenge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Pete Wargent notes (in his <a href=\"http:\/\/petewargent.blogspot.com\/2022\/07\/listings-down-again-in-june.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">blog<\/a>) that CoreLogic highlighted that total property listings are 27% below their 5-year average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it is likely that listings will fall further because higher interest rates and inflation readings will fuel more bad news in the media, which will deteriorate consumer and property sentiment. Therefore, unless owners are obligated to sell their property this year, it\u2019s likely that most owners will postpone selling until market sentiment recovers. There might be some motivated sellers (due to financial hardship), but these are unlikely to be in investment-grade locations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fewer listings will make it challenging to find an investment-grade asset and I see this as the main challenge. There\u2019s not much you can do about that other than have patience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-doing-the-opposite\">Doing the opposite<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Investing is a little like parenting in that if you feel good while doing it, then you are probably not doing it right. Doing things such as investing in undervalued assets, bucking conventional wisdom and so on all feel uncomfortable. But that discomfort is often a good sign that you\u2019re making the right decision.<\/p>\n   ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In mid-2021, I wrote this blog: \u201cDon\u2019t buy a property in this market\u2026\u201d because, at that time, many property buyers were over-paying for property just to get into the market&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v21.9.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Now\u2019s a great time to buy property. Here\u2019s why\u2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Now\u2019s a great time to buy property. Here\u2019s why\u2026 recent growth is mainly the result of mean reversion plus a small FOMO premium.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Now is a great time to buy property. Here&#039;s why...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Now\u2019s a great time to buy property. 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